Phenotype-based targeted treatment of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes could enhance targeting specific glucose-lowering therapies to individual patients most likely to benefit. We aimed to use the recently developed Bayesian causal forest (BCF) method to develop and validate an individualised treatment selection algorithm for two major type 2 diabetes drug classes, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA). METHODS: We designed a predictive algorithm using BCF to estimate individual-level conditional average treatment effects for 12-month glycaemic outcome (HbA1c) between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA, based on routine clinical features of 46,394 people with type 2 diabetes in primary care in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 27,319 for model development, 19,075 for hold-out validation), with additional external validation in 2252 people with type 2 diabetes from Scotland (SCI-Diabetes [Tayside & Fife]). Differences in glycaemic outcome with GLP1-RA by sex seen in clinical data were replicated in clinical trial data (HARMONY programme: liraglutide [n=389] and albiglutide [n=1682]). As secondary outcomes, we evaluated the impacts of targeting therapy based on glycaemic response on weight change, tolerability and longer-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications, macrovascular complications and adverse kidney events. RESULTS: Model development identified marked heterogeneity in glycaemic response, with 4787 (17.5%) of the development cohort having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol (>0.3%) with SGLT2i over GLP1-RA and 5551 (20.3%) having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol with GLP1-RA over SGLT2i. Calibration was good in hold-back validation, and external validation in an independent Scottish dataset identified clear differences in glycaemic outcomes between those predicted to benefit from each therapy. Sex, with women markedly more responsive to GLP1-RA, was identified as a major treatment effect modifier in both the UK observational datasets and in clinical trial data: HARMONY-7 liraglutide (GLP1-RA): 4.4 mmol/mol (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 2.2, 6.3) (0.4% [95% CrI 0.2, 0.6]) greater response in women than men. Targeting the two therapies based on predicted glycaemic response was also associated with improvements in short-term tolerability and long-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Precision medicine approaches can facilitate effective individualised treatment choice between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA therapies, and the use of routinely collected clinical features for treatment selection could support low-cost deployment in many countries.

Regional variation in cause of death in patients with type 2 diabetes: Insights from EXSCEL.

AIMS: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a risk factor for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. However, global distribution of cause-specific deaths in T2D is poorly understood. We characterized cause-specific deaths by geographic region among individuals with T2D at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: The international EXSCEL trial included 14,752 participants with T2D (73% with established CVD). We identified the proportion of deaths over 5-year follow-up attributed to cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes, and associated risk factors. During median 3.2-year follow-up, 1,091 (7.4%) participants died. Adjudicated causes of death were 723 cardiovascular (66.3% of deaths), including 252 unknown, and 368 non-cardiovascular (33.7%). Most deaths occurred in North America (N = 356/9.6% across region) and Eastern Europe (N = 326/8.1%), with fewest in Asia/Pacific (N = 68/4.4%). The highest proportional cause-specific deaths by region were sudden cardiac in Asia/Pacific (23/34% of regional deaths) and North America (86/24%); unknown in Eastern Europe (90/28%) and Western Europe (39/21%); and non-malignant non-cardiovascular in Latin America (48/31%). Cox proportional hazards model for adjudicated causes of death showed prognostic risk factors (hazard ratio [95% CI]) for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths, respectively: heart failure 2.04 (1.72-2.42) and 1.86 (1.46-2.39); peripheral artery disease 1.83 (1.54-2.18) and 1.78 (1.40-2.26); and current smoking status 1.61 (1.29-2.01) and 1.77 (1.31-2.40). CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary T2D trial population, with and without established CVD, leading causes of death varied by geographic region. Underlying mechanisms leading to variability in cause of death across geographic regions and its impact on clinical trial endpoints warrant future research.

Comparison of medical resources and costs among patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance in the Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation trial.

BACKGROUND: The Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial (ISRCTN91899513) evaluated the alpha-glucosidase inhibitor acarbose, compared with placebo, in 6522 patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance in China and showed a reduced incidence of diabetes. We assessed the within-trial medical resource use and costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). METHODS: Resource use data were collected prospectively within the ACE trial. Hospitalizations, medications, and outpatient visits were valued using Chinese unit costs. Medication use was measured in drug days, with cardiovascular and diabetes drugs summed across the trial by participant. Health-related quality of life was captured using the EuroQol-5 Dimension-3 Level questionnaire. Regression analyses were used to compare resource use, costs, and QALYs, accounting for regional variation. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% yearly. RESULTS: Hospitalizations were 6% higher in the acarbose arm during the trial (rate ratio 1.06, p = .009), but there were no significant differences in total inpatient days (rate ratio 1.04, p = .30). Total costs per participant, including study drug, were significantly higher for acarbose (¥ [Yuan] 56 480, £6213), compared with placebo (¥48 079, £5289; mean ratio 1.18, p < 0.001). QALYs reported by participants in the acarbose arm (3.96 QALYs) were marginally higher than in the placebo arm (3.95 QALYs), but the difference was not statistically significant (0.01 QALYs; p = .58). CONCLUSIONS: Acarbose, compared with placebo, participants cost more due to study drug costs and reported no statistically significant difference in QALYs. These higher within-trial costs could potentially be offset in future by savings from the acarbose-related lower incidence of diabetes.

Orthostatic Hypotension, Hypertension Treatment, and Cardiovascular Disease: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis.

Importance: There are ongoing concerns about the benefits of intensive vs standard blood pressure (BP) treatment among adults with orthostatic hypotension or standing hypotension. Objective: To determine the effect of a lower BP treatment goal or active therapy vs a standard BP treatment goal or placebo on cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality in strata of baseline orthostatic hypotension or baseline standing hypotension. Data Sources: Individual participant data meta-analysis based on a systematic review of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases through May 13, 2022. Study Selection: Randomized trials of BP pharmacologic treatment (more intensive BP goal or active agent) with orthostatic hypotension assessments. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual participant data meta-analysis extracted following PRISMA guidelines. Effects were determined using Cox proportional hazard models using a single-stage approach. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were CVD or all-cause mortality. Orthostatic hypotension was defined as a decrease in systolic BP of at least 20 mm Hg and/or diastolic BP of at least 10 mm Hg after changing position from sitting to standing. Standing hypotension was defined as a standing systolic BP of 110 mm Hg or less or standing diastolic BP of 60 mm Hg or less. Results: The 9 trials included 29 235 participants followed up for a median of 4 years (mean age, 69.0 [SD, 10.9] years; 48% women). There were 9% with orthostatic hypotension and 5% with standing hypotension at baseline. More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline orthostatic hypotension (hazard ratio [HR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76-0.86) similarly to those with baseline orthostatic hypotension (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00; P = .68 for interaction of treatment with baseline orthostatic hypotension). More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.85), and nonsignificantly among those with baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.75-1.18). Effects did not differ by baseline standing hypotension (P = .16 for interaction of treatment with baseline standing hypotension). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population of hypertension trial participants, intensive therapy reduced risk of CVD or all-cause mortality regardless of orthostatic hypotension without evidence for different effects among those with standing hypotension.

Timing of SGLT2i initiation after acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacological post-MI treatment is routinely initiated at intensive/cardiac care units. However, solid evidence for an early start of these therapies is only available for dual platelet therapy and statins, whereas data on beta blockers and RAAS inhibitors are heterogenous and mainly limited to STEMI and heart failure patients. Recently, the EMMY trial provided the first evidence on the beneficial effects of SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) when initiated early after PCI. In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, SGLT2i are considered "sick days drugs" and it, therefore, remains unclear if very early SGLT2i initiation following MI is as safe and effective as delayed initiation. METHODS AND RESULTS: The EMMY trial evaluated the effect of empagliflozin on NT-proBNP and functional and structural measurements. Within the Empagliflozin group, 22 (9.5%) received early treatment (< 24 h after PCI), 98 (42.2%) within a 24 to < 48 h window (intermediate), and 111 (48.1%) between 48 and 72 h (late). NT-proBNP levels declined by 63.5% (95%CI: - 69.1; - 48.1) in the early group compared to 61.0% (- 76.0; - 41.4) in the intermediate and 61.9% (- 70.8; - 45.7) in the late group (n.s.) within the Empagliflozin group with no significant treatment groups-initiation time interaction (pint = 0.96). Secondary endpoints of left ventricular function (LV-EF, e/e`) as well as structure (LVESD and LVEDD) were also comparable between the groups. No significant difference in severe adverse event rate between the initiation time groups was detected. CONCLUSION: Very early administration of SGLT2i after acute myocardial infarction does not show disadvantageous signals with respect to safety and appears to be as effective in reducing NT-proBNP as well as improving structural and functional LV markers as initiation after 2-3 days.

Aetiology of Type 2 diabetes in people with a 'normal' body mass index: testing the personal fat threshold hypothesis.

Weight loss in overweight or obese individuals with Type 2 diabetes (T2D) can normalize hepatic fat metabolism, decrease fatty acid oversupply to ß cells and restore normoglycaemia. One in six people has BMI <27 kg/m2 at diagnosis, and their T2D is assumed to have different aetiology. The Personal Fat Threshold hypothesis postulated differing individual thresholds for lipid overspill and adverse effects on ß-cell function. To test this hypothesis, people with Type 2 diabetes and body mass index <27kg/m2 (n = 20) underwent repeated 5% weight loss cycles. Metabolic assessments were carried out at stable weight after each cycle and after 12 months. To determine how closely metabolic features returned to normal, 20 matched normoglycemic controls were studied once. Between baseline and 12 months: BMI fell (mean ± SD), 24.8 ± 0.4 to 22.5 ± 0.4 kg/m2 (P<0.0001) (controls: 21.5 ± 0.5); total body fat, 32.1 ± 1.5 to 27.6 ± 1.8% (P<0.0001) (24.6 ± 1.5). Liver fat content and fat export fell to normal as did fasting plasma insulin. Post-meal insulin secretion increased but remained subnormal. Sustained diabetes remission (HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol off all glucose-lowering agents) was achieved by 70% (14/20) by initial weight loss of 6.5 (5.5-10.2)%. Correction of concealed excess intra-hepatic fat reduced hepatic fat export, with recovery of ß-cell function, glycaemic improvement in all and return to a non-diabetic metabolic state in the majority of this group with BMI <27 kg/m2 as previously demonstrated for overweight or obese groups. The data confirm the Personal Fat Threshold hypothesis: aetiology of Type 2 diabetes does not depend on BMI. This pathophysiological insight has major implications for management.

Mitochondrial metabolites predict adverse cardiovascular events in individuals with diabetes.

Metabolic mechanisms underlying the heterogeneity of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) event (MACE) risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) remain unclear. We hypothesized that circulating metabolites reflecting mitochondrial dysfunction predict incident MACE in T2D. Targeted mass-spectrometry profiling of 60 metabolites was performed on baseline plasma samples from the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS; discovery cohort) and Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL; validation cohort) biomarker substudy cohorts. A principal components analysis metabolite factor comprising medium-chain acylcarnitines (MCACs) was associated with MACE in TECOS and validated in EXSCEL, with higher levels associated with higher MACE risk. Meta-analysis showed that long-chain acylcarnitines (LCACs) and dicarboxylacylcarnitines were also associated with MACE. Metabolites remained associated with MACE in multivariate models and favorably changed with exenatide therapy. A third cohort (Cardiac Catheterization Genetics [CATHGEN]) with T2D was assessed to determine whether these metabolites improved discriminative capability of multivariate models for MACE. Nine metabolites (MCACs and LCACs and 1 dicarboxylacylcarnitine) were associated with time to MACE in the CATHGEN cohort. Addition of these metabolites to clinical models minimally improved the discriminative capability for MACE but did significantly down reclassify risk. Thus, metabolites reporting on dysregulated mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation are present in higher levels in individuals with T2D who experience subsequent MACE. These biomarkers may improve CV risk prediction models, be therapy responsive, and highlight emerging risk mechanisms.

Proteomic Pathways across Ejection Fraction Spectrum in Heart Failure: an EXSCEL Substudy.

Background: Ejection fraction (EF) is a key component of heart failure (HF) classification, including the increasingly codified HF with mildly reduced EF (HFmrEF) category. However, the biologic basis of HFmrEF as an entity distinct from HF with preserved EF (HFpEF) and reduced EF (HFrEF) has not been well characterized. Methods: The EXSCEL trial randomized participants with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) vs. placebo. For this study, profiling of ∼5000 proteins using the SomaLogic SomaScan platform was performed in baseline and 12-month serum samples from N=1199 participants with prevalent HF at baseline. Principal component analysis (PCA) and ANOVA (FDR p<0.1) were used to determine differences in proteins between three EF groups, as previously curated in EXSCEL (EF>55% [HFpEF], EF 40-55% [HFmrEF], EF<40% [HFrEF]). Cox proportional hazards was used to assess association between baseline levels of significant proteins, and changes in protein level between baseline and 12-month, with time-to-HF hospitalization. Mixed models were used to assess whether significant proteins changed differentially with exenatide vs. placebo therapy. Results: Of N=1199 EXSCEL participants with prevalent HF, 284 (24%), 704 (59%) and 211 (18%) had HFpEF, HFmrEF and HFrEF, respectively. Eight PCA protein factors and 221 individual proteins within these factors differed significantly across the three EF groups. Levels of the majority of proteins (83%) demonstrated concordance between HFmrEF and HFpEF, but higher levels in HFrEF, predominated by the domain of extracellular matrix regulation, e.g. COL28A1 and tenascin C [TNC]; p<0.0001. Concordance between HFmrEF and HFrEF was observed in a minority of proteins (1%) including MMP-9 (p<0.0001). Biologic pathways of epithelial mesenchymal transition, ECM receptor interaction, complement and coagulation cascades, and cytokine receptor interaction demonstrated enrichment among proteins with the dominant pattern, i.e. HFmrEF-HFpEF concordance. Baseline levels of 208 (94%) of the 221 proteins were associated with time-to-incident HF hospitalization including domains of extracellular matrix (COL28A1, TNC), angiogenesis (ANG2, VEGFa, VEGFd), myocyte stretch (NT-proBNP), and renal function (cystatin-C). Change in levels of 10 of the 221 proteins from baseline to 12 months (including increase in TNC) predicted incident HF hospitalization (p<0.05). Levels of 30 of the 221 significant proteins (including TNC, NT-proBNP, ANG2) were reduced differentially by EQW compared with placebo (interaction p<0.0001). Conclusions: In this HF substudy of a large clinical trial of people with T2DM, we found that serum levels of most proteins across multiple biologic domains were similar between HFmrEF and HFpEF. HFmrEF may be more biologically similar to HFpEF than HFrEF, and specific related biomarkers may offer unique data on prognosis and pharmacotherapy modification with variability by EF.

Assessment of Cardiac Energy Metabolism, Function, and Physiology in Patients With Heart Failure Taking Empagliflozin: The Randomized, Controlled EMPA-VISION Trial.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have emerged as a paramount treatment for patients with heart failure (HF), irrespective of underlying reduced or preserved ejection fraction. However, a definite cardiac mechanism of action remains elusive. Derangements in myocardial energy metabolism are detectable in all HF phenotypes, and it was proposed that SGLT2i may improve energy production. The authors aimed to investigate whether treatment with empagliflozin leads to changes in myocardial energetics, serum metabolomics, and cardiorespiratory fitness. METHODS: EMPA-VISION (Assessment of Cardiac Energy Metabolism, Function and Physiology in Patients With Heart Failure Taking Empagliflozin) is a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, mechanistic trial that enrolled 72 symptomatic patients with chronic HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; n=36; left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%; New York Heart Association class ≥II; NT-proBNP [N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide] ≥125 pg/mL) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF; n=36; left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%; New York Heart Association class ≥II; NT-proBNP ≥125 pg/mL). Patients were stratified into respective cohorts (HFrEF versus HFpEF) and randomly assigned to empagliflozin (10 mg; n=35: 17 HFrEF and 18 HFpEF) or placebo (n=37: 19 HFrEF and 18 HFpEF) once daily for 12 weeks. The primary end point was a change in the cardiac phosphocreatine:ATP ratio (PCr/ATP) from baseline to week 12, determined by phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy at rest and during peak dobutamine stress (65% of age-maximum heart rate). Mass spectrometry on a targeted set of 19 metabolites was performed at baseline and after treatment. Other exploratory end points were investigated. RESULTS: Empagliflozin treatment did not change cardiac energetics (ie, PCr/ATP) at rest in HFrEF (adjusted mean treatment difference [empagliflozin - placebo], -0.25 [95% CI, -0.58 to 0.09]; P=0.14) or HFpEF (adjusted mean treatment difference, -0.16 [95% CI, -0.60 to 0.29]; P=0.47]. Likewise, there were no changes in PCr/ATP during dobutamine stress in HFrEF (adjusted mean treatment difference, -0.13 [95% CI, -0.35 to 0.09]; P=0.23) or HFpEF (adjusted mean treatment difference, -0.22 [95% CI, -0.66 to 0.23]; P=0.32). No changes in serum metabolomics or levels of circulating ketone bodies were observed. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with either HFrEF or HFpEF, treatment with 10 mg of empagliflozin once daily for 12 weeks did not improve cardiac energetics or change circulating serum metabolites associated with energy metabolism when compared with placebo. Based on our results, it is unlikely that enhancing cardiac energy metabolism mediates the beneficial effects of SGLT2i in HF. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03332212.

Time-dependent event accumulation in a cardiovascular outcome trial of patients with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Estimating cardiovascular (CV) event accrual is important for outcome trial planning. Limited data exist describing event accrual patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compared apparent CV event accrual patterns with true event rates in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). METHODS: Centrally adjudicated event dates and accrual rates for a 4-point major adverse CV event composite (MACE-4; includes CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina hospitalization), MACE-4 components, all-cause mortality (ACM), and heart failure hospitalization were compiled. We used three graphical methods (Weibull probability plot, plot of negative log of the Kaplan-Meier survival distribution estimate, and the Epanechnikov kernel-smoothed estimate of the hazard rate) to examine hazard rate morphology over time for the 7 outcomes. RESULTS: Plots for all outcomes showed real-time constant event hazard rates for the duration of the follow-up, confirmed by Weibull shape parameters. The Weibull shape parameters for ACM (1.14, 95% CI 1.08-1.21) and CV death (1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16) were not sufficiently > 1 as to require non-constant hazard rate models to accurately depict the data. The time lag between event occurrence and event adjudication being completed, the adjudication gap, improved over the course of the trial. CONCLUSIONS: In TECOS, the nonfatal event hazard rates were constant over time. Small increases over time in the hazard rate for fatal events would not require complex modelling to predict event accrual, providing confidence in traditional modelling methods for predicting CV outcome trial event rates in this population. The adjudication gap provides a useful metric to monitor within-trial event accrual patterns. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00790205.

Association of osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin with cardiovascular disease and retinopathy in type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Novel biomarkers of vascular disease in diabetes could help identify new mechanistic pathways. Osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin are key molecules involved in bone and vascular calcification processes, both of which are compromised in diabetes. We aimed to evaluate possible associations of osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetic retinopathy (DR) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin concentrations were measured at enrolment in 848 participants with T2D from the Sapienza University Mortality and Morbidity Event Rate (SUMMER) Study (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02311244). Logistic regression models and propensity score matching were used to assess possible associations of osteocalcin, osteoprotegerin, and osteopontin with a history of CVD and with evidence of any grade of DR adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Previous CVD was reported in 139 (16.4%) participants, while 144 (17.0%) had DR. After adjusting for possible confounders, osteocalcin but not osteoprotegerin or osteopontin concentrations were associated with a history of CVD (Odds Ratio [OR] and 95% CI for one standard deviation (SD) increase in osteocalcin concentrations (natural log): 1.35 (1.06-1.72), p = 0.014). Associations with prevalent DR were seen for osteoprotegerin (OR for one SD increase in osteoprotegerin concentrations (natural log): 1.25 (1.01-1.55), p = 0.047) and osteopontin (OR for one SD increase in osteopontin concentrations (natural log): 1.25 (1.02-1.53), p = 0.022), but not osteocalcin. CONCLUSIONS: In T2D, higher serum osteocalcin concentrations are associated with macrovascular complications and higher osteoprotegerin and osteopontin concentrations with microvascular complications, suggesting that these osteokines might be involved in pathways directly related to vascular disease.

11ß-HSD1 inhibition in men mitigates prednisolone-induced adverse effects in a proof-of-concept randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

Glucocorticoids prescribed to limit inflammation, have significant adverse effects. As 11ß-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11ß-HSD1) regenerates active glucocorticoid, we investigated whether 11ß-HSD1 inhibition with AZD4017 could mitigate adverse glucocorticoid effects without compromising their anti-inflammatory actions. We conducted a proof-of-concept, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study at Research Unit, Churchill Hospital, Oxford, UK (NCT03111810). 32 healthy male volunteers were randomized to AZD4017 or placebo, alongside prednisolone treatment. Although the primary endpoint of the study (change in glucose disposal during a two-step hyperinsulinemic, normoglycemic clamp) wasn't met, hepatic insulin sensitivity worsened in the placebo-treated but not in the AZD4017-treated group. Protective effects of AZD4017 on markers of lipid metabolism and bone turnover were observed. Night-time blood pressure was higher in the placebo-treated but not in the AZD4017-treated group. Urinary (5aTHF+THF)/THE ratio was lower in the AZD4017-treated but remained the same in the placebo-treated group. Most anti-inflammatory actions of prednisolone persisted with AZD4017 co-treatment. Four adverse events were reported with AZD4017 and no serious adverse events. Here we show that co-administration of AZD4017 with prednisolone in men is a potential strategy to limit adverse glucocorticoid effects.

Joint longitudinal and time-to-event modelling compared with standard Cox modelling in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established cardiovascular disease: An analysis of the EXSCEL trial.

AIM: To demonstrate the gain in predictive performance when cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction tools (RPTs) incorporate repeated rather than only single measurements of risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial to compare the quality of predictions of future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with the Cox proportional hazards model (using single values of risk factors) compared to the Bayesian joint model (using repeated measures of risk factors). The risk of MACE was calculated in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established CVD. We assessed the predictive ability of the following cardiovascular risk factors: glycated haemoglobin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL-C, triglycerides, estimated glomerular filtration rate, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) using the time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (aROC) for discrimination and the time-dependent Brier score for calibration. RESULTS: In participants without history of CVD, the aROC of SBP increased from 0.62 to 0.69 when repeated rather than only single measurements of SBP were incorporated into the predictive model. Similarly, the aROC increased from 0.67 to 0.80 when repeated rather than only single measurements of both SBP and LDL-C were incorporated into the predictive model. For all other investigated cardiovascular risk factors, the measures of discrimination and calibration both improved when using the joint model as compared to the Cox proportional hazards model. The improvement was evident in participants with and without history of CVD but was more pronounced in the latter group. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis demonstrates that the joint modelling approach, considering trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors, provides superior predictive performance compared to standard RPTs that use only a single timepoint.

Impact of baseline kidney function on the effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors on kidney and heart failure outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

AIM: To determine whether the magnitude of the cardiorenal benefits of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) varies with baseline kidney function. METHODS: We searched randomized, placebo-controlled trials testing the effects of SGLT2is on renal and cardiovascular outcomes. Efficacy outcomes, stratified by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categories, included renal disease progression, a composite heart failure (HF) outcome and mortality. RESULTS: Thirteen trials testing SGLT2is in 90 402 participants with available eGFR data were included. The risk of bias was judged as low for all trials. SGLT2is reduced the relative risks of renal disease progression by 27% to 57% and of HF outcomes by 13% to 32% across different eGFR categories, with an overall low heterogeneity. Meta-regression analyses showed a significant direct relationship between baseline eGFR and the magnitude of SGLT2is' renal protection (P = .003). The greatest risk reduction was in participants with an eGFR of 90 ml/min/1.73m2 or higher (HR 0.43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.58) and the smallest was in those with an eGFR of less than 30 ml/min/1.73m2 (HR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62-0.86, P < .001). Conversely, for HF, the greatest risk reduction was in those with an eGFR of less than 30 ml/min/1.73m2 (HR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.48-0.96) and the smallest was in those with an eGFR of 90 ml/min/1.73m2 or higher (HR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.56-1.34). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2is reduce the risk of renal and HF outcomes for all eGFR categories. The greatest benefits in terms of kidney protection may be achieved by early initiation of SGLT2is in people with preserved eGFR. The greatest risk reduction for HF outcomes is observed in people with lower eGFR values.

Sex differences in the complications, care and clinical outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL).

AIM: To examine sex differences in the characteristics and outcomes in participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with or without cardiovascular disease (CVD), randomized to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) or placebo in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Baseline characteristics were summarized and compared by sex. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for clinical outcomes, including the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular (CV) death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke (MACE3). Models including sex-by-treatment interaction were used to evaluate differences in effects of EQW. RESULTS: Overall, 5603 women and 9149 men were followed for a median of 3.2 years. Women were younger (mean 61.4 vs. 62.2 years, P < .001) and had a shorter duration of diabetes (mean 12.9 vs. 13.2 years, P = .039) and less coronary artery disease (35.2% vs. 61.0%, P < .001) than men, but also a less favourable metabolic risk profile and lower use of cardioprotective medications. MACE3 occurred in 9.1% of women and 13.5% of men, corresponding to 2.82 versus 4.40 events/100 participant-years (adjusted hazard ratio 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.93, P = .003). There was no difference in MACE3 with EQW compared with placebo, or evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effect by sex. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of a large population of individuals with T2D, with or without established CVD, identified between-sex differences in clinical characteristics and care. Despite having worse management of CV risk factors, women had significantly lower rates of important CV events not attributable to the effects of study treatment.

Patient stratification for determining optimal second-line and third-line therapy for type 2 diabetes: the TriMaster study.

Precision medicine aims to treat an individual based on their clinical characteristics. A differential drug response, critical to using these features for therapy selection, has never been examined directly in type 2 diabetes. In this study, we tested two hypotheses: (1) individuals with body mass index (BMI) > 30 kg/m2, compared to BMI ≤ 30 kg/m2, have greater glucose lowering with thiazolidinediones than with DPP4 inhibitors, and (2) individuals with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 60-90 ml/min/1.73 m2, compared to eGFR >90 ml/min/1.73 m2, have greater glucose lowering with DPP4 inhibitors than with SGLT2 inhibitors. The primary endpoint for both hypotheses was the achieved HbA1c difference between strata for the two drugs. In total, 525 people with type 2 diabetes participated in this UK-based randomized, double-blind, three-way crossover trial of 16 weeks of treatment with each of sitagliptin 100 mg once daily, canagliflozin 100 mg once daily and pioglitazone 30 mg once daily added to metformin alone or metformin plus sulfonylurea. Overall, the achieved HbA1c was similar for the three drugs: pioglitazone 59.6 mmol/mol, sitagliptin 60.0 mmol/mol and canagliflozin 60.6 mmol/mol (P = 0.2). Participants with BMI > 30 kg/m2, compared to BMI ≤ 30 kg/m2, had a 2.88 mmol/mol (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 4.79) lower HbA1c on pioglitazone than on sitagliptin (n = 356, P = 0.003). Participants with eGFR 60-90 ml/min/1.73 m2, compared to eGFR >90 ml/min/1.73 m2, had a 2.90 mmol/mol (95% CI: 1.19, 4.61) lower HbA1c on sitagliptin than on canagliflozin (n = 342, P = 0.001). There were 2,201 adverse events reported, and 447/525 (85%) randomized participants experienced an adverse event on at least one of the study drugs. In this precision medicine trial in type 2 diabetes, our findings support the use of simple, routinely available clinical measures to identify the drug class most likely to deliver the greatest glycemic reduction for a given patient. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT02653209 ; ISRCTN registration: 12039221 .).

Protein biomarkers of cardiac remodeling and inflammation associated with HFpEF and incident events.

There is increasing evidence that HFpEF is a heterogeneous clinical entity and distinct molecular pathways may contribute to pathophysiology. Leveraging unbiased proteomics to identify novel biomarkers, this study seeks to understand the underlying molecular mechanisms of HFpEF. The discovery cohort consisted of HFpEF cases and non-HF controls from the CATHGEN study (N = 176); the validation cohort consisted of participants from the TECOS trial of patients with diabetes (N = 109). Proteins associated with HFpEF were included in a LASSO model to create a discriminative multi-protein model and assessed in the validation cohort. Survival models and meta-analysis were used to test the association of proteins with incident clinical outcomes, including HF hospitalization, mortality and HFpEF hospitalization in CATHGEN, TECOS and the Jackson Heart Study. In the derivation set, 190 proteins were associated with HFpEF in univariate analysis, of which 65 remained significant in the multivariate model. Twenty (30.8%) of these proteins validated in TECOS, including LCN2, U-PAR, IL-1ra, KIM1, CSTB and Gal-9 (OR 1.93-2.77, p < 0.01). LASSO regression yielded a 13-protein model which, when added to a clinical model inclusive of NT-proBNP, improved the AUC from 0.82 to 0.92 (p = 1.5 × 10-4). Five proteins were associated with incident HF hospitalization, four with HFpEF hospitalization and eleven with mortality (p < 0.05). We identified and validated multiple circulating biomarkers associated with HFpEF as well as HF outcomes. These biomarkers added incremental discriminative capabilities beyond clinical factors and NT-proBNP.

Development of a treatment selection algorithm for SGLT2 and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies in people with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Current treatment guidelines do not provide recommendations to support the selection of treatment for most people with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to develop and validate an algorithm to allow selection of optimal treatment based on glycaemic response, weight change, and tolerability outcomes when choosing between SGLT2 inhibitor or DPP-4 inhibitor therapies. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients initiating SGLT2 and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies after Jan 1, 2013, from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We excluded those who received SGLT2 or DPP-4 inhibitors as first-line treatment or insulin at the same time, had estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or did not have a valid baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) measure (<53 or ≥120 mmol/mol). The primary efficacy outcome was the HbA1c value reached 6 months after drug initiation, adjusted for baseline HbA1c. Clinical features associated with differential HbA1c outcome on the two therapies were identified in CPRD (n=26 877), and replicated in reanalysis of 14 clinical trials (n=10 414). An algorithm to predict individual-level differential HbA1c outcome on the two therapies was developed in CPRD (derivation; n=14 069) and validated in head-to-head trials (n=2499) and CPRD (independent validation; n=9376). In CPRD, we further explored heterogeneity in 6-month weight change and treatment discontinuation. FINDINGS: Among 10 253 patients initiating SGLT2 inhibitors and 16 624 patients initiating DPP-4 inhibitors in CPRD, baseline HbA1c, age, BMI, eGFR, and alanine aminotransferase were associated with differential HbA1c outcome with SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies. The median age of participants was 62·0 years (IQR 55·0-70·0). 10 016 (37·3%) were women and 16 861 (62·7%) were men. An algorithm based on these five features identified a subgroup, representing around four in ten CPRD patients, with a 5 mmol/mol or greater observed benefit with SGLT2 inhibitors in all validation cohorts (CPRD 8·8 mmol/mol [95% CI 7·8-9·8]; CANTATA-D and CANTATA-D2 trials 5·8 mmol/mol [3·9-7·7]; BI1245.20 trial 6·6 mmol/mol [2·2-11·0]). In CPRD, predicted differential HbA1c response with SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies was not associated with weight change. Overall treatment discontinuation within 6 months was similar in patients predicted to have an HbA1c benefit with SGLT2 inhibitors over DPP-4 inhibitors (median 15·2% [13·2-20·3] vs 14·4% [12·9-16·7]). A smaller subgroup predicted to have greater HbA1c reduction with DPP-4 inhibitors were twice as likely to discontinue SGLT2 inhibitors than DPP-4 inhibitors (median 26·8% [23·4-31·0] vs 14·8% [12·9-16·8]). INTERPRETATION: A validated treatment selection algorithm for SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies can support decisions on optimal treatment for people with type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award and the UK Medical Research Council.

Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study.

BACKGROUND: People with intermediate hyperglycemia (IH), including impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance, are at higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) than those with normoglycemia. We aimed to evaluate the performance of published T2D risk prediction models in Chinese people with IH to inform them about the choice of primary diabetes prevention measures. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted to identify Asian-derived T2D risk prediction models, which were eligible if they were built on a prospective cohort of Asian adults without diabetes at baseline and utilized routinely-available variables to predict future risk of T2D. These Asian-derived and five prespecified non-Asian derived T2D risk prediction models were divided into BASIC (clinical variables only) and EXTENDED (plus laboratory variables) versions, with validation performed on them in three prospective Chinese IH cohorts: ACE (n = 3241), Luzhou (n = 1333), and TCLSIH (n = 1702). Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). RESULTS: Forty-four Asian and five non-Asian studies comprising 21 BASIC and 46 EXTENDED T2D risk prediction models for validation were identified. The majority were at high (n = 43, 87.8%) or unclear (n = 3, 6.1%) risk of bias, while only three studies (6.1%) were scored at low risk of bias. BASIC models showed poor-to-moderate discrimination with C-statistics 0.52-0.60, 0.50-0.59, and 0.50-0.64 in the ACE, Luzhou, and TCLSIH cohorts respectively. EXTENDED models showed poor-to-acceptable discrimination with C-statistics 0.54-0.73, 0.52-0.67, and 0.59-0.78 respectively. Fifteen BASIC and 40 EXTENDED models showed poor calibration (P < 0.05), overpredicting or underestimating the observed diabetes risk. Most recalibrated models showed improved calibration but modestly-to-severely overestimated diabetes risk in the three cohorts. The NAVIGATOR model showed the best discrimination in the three cohorts but had poor calibration (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese people with IH, previously published BASIC models to predict T2D did not exhibit good discrimination or calibration. Several EXTENDED models performed better, but a robust Chinese T2D risk prediction tool in people with IH remains a major unmet need.